Embrace Uncertainty and Make Better Admissions Choices
University admissions is not one big decision. It is a cascade of hundreds of small ones. What an excellent opportunity to prepare for the rest of life, which is nothing if not a series of choices. Students applying to their next step in higher education can leverage the application cycle to make better decisions and learn more about who they are. Which extracurricular to pursue. Whether to take AP Calculus or AP Statistics. How to spend a precious summer. Which essay topic actually reveals something true about a kid instead of something they think an admissions officer wants to hear. Every one of these choices feels fraught given how little certainty there is about the outcome and the velocity at which people will send their opinion your way. At Palladis, we work closely with families for years before and after university decision day, so we know that getting better at making decisions is the key to admissions and, in our opinion, to living a happier life. It is not an exaggeration to say that we are obsessed with making better decisions ourselves and guiding our clients toward the same. But how?
What Is Thinking in Bets and Why Does It Apply to Admissions?
Annie Duke’s framework from Thinking in Bets is a useful model to apply to this problem. Duke played professional poker before she became a decision strategist, and her argument is simple. Good decisions aren’t good because they lead to good outcomes. Even bad decisions can do that. Rather, the quality of a decision rests on how it is made. Based on the best available information at the time, this means you have to acknowledge uncertainty instead of pretending it away. A poker player can make the mathematically correct play and still lose the hand. A student can craft a genuinely compelling application and still get rejected. The trick is separating decision quality from outcome quality, and this is a pretty counterintuitive position to take. Spend a few minutes on this explainer. It will help.
Some of you are objecting right now. Why am I talking about gambling when your future is on the line? Or, more honestly, what difference does this actually make to you? Fair questions.
Here’s how we use it in the context of the perennially sticky Early Decision dilemma.
How Should Students Approach the Early Decision Question?
An uninformed approach treats Early Decision as a no-brainer. All in without thinking it through. This is the approach most educational consultants take: apply early and binding to the most competitive school on your list. No questions needed. Duke’s framework, and mine, asks for a smarter choice.
- What percentage of the class does this school fill early?
- How binding are my financial considerations?
- What’s my likelihood of admission in the regular round versus early?
- Do I actually want to attend this school so much that I am willing to push away any other option?
Answer these earnestly, and you will find greater clarity about which school to go all in with.
What Can Applicants Actually Control in the Admissions Process?
You control effort not outcomes.
Admissions forces you to make consequential choices with wildly incomplete data. You don’t know what other applicants’ files look like. You can’t predict which admissions officer reads yours or what mood they’re in. There’s no crystal ball showing whether demonstrated interest tips the scales at a particular school. Decisions have to get made anyway.
The move is to focus on informed bets instead of chasing certainty that doesn’t exist. Gather the best available information. Research admissions data. Understand program requirements. Get feedback from counselors who actually know what they’re talking about. Ask what’s the likelihood this choice serves your goals. Reflect on who you are and what your priorities are for this next step.
Good decision makers know the difference between what they control and what luck decides. You control how much effort goes into your essays. You don’t control whether the reader connects with your story. You control whether you demonstrate genuine interest in a program’s specific offerings. You don’t control admissions committee politics or institutional priorities that shift year to year.
Can a Good Decision Still Lead to a Bad Outcome?
Yes, all the time. And vice versa. You can make an excellent decision and still face a disappointing outcome, and that doesn’t retroactively make the decision bad. The decision was still a good bet placed with incomplete information in an uncertain system, which is the actual nature of admissions on the student side.
Perfect outcomes would be nice. They’re unachievable, so chasing them is a waste of everyone’s emotional and psychological energy. What you’re actually looking for is excellence: consistency, strategy, and well-reasoned choices that maximize your odds while staying true to who you are.
The Palladis Approach to Admissions Decisions
Excellence can be intentional for you, and it is at Palladis. Making excellent choices is a life skill we know serves our clients well beyond one admissions cycle.
Let’s get Nichomachean: “Excellence is never an accident. It is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, and intelligent execution. It represents the wise choice of many alternatives. Choice, not chance, determines your destiny.” – Historian Will Durant summarizing Aristotle’s perspective on the importance of getting good at making decisions.
We think you are important and that an admissions process is the ideal venue for testing and improving your ability to improve your life. Weighing Early Decision? We pull the admit rate and talk to you realistically about your list. We run the financial aid math. We show what regular decision actually looks like next to that. Choosing between two extracurriculars? We ask what each one signals to a committee and whether that signal fits the rest of the application. And we ask you to decide what your priorities are. Starting from scratch with no idea of where to turn? Let’s talk through your priorities, give you the right information to start making choices, and watch you answer those questions fully and meaningfully.
We also pay attention to what stresses you out and what gets you excited. The difference in your reactions tells us something about fit, and we use it to help you make better decisions. Nobody controls which offers come in, so we focus on what actually is in your hands. Together, we build a realistic sense of control over the process. We help students make intelligent decisions and learn something true about themselves along the way. When the cycle ends and the offers land where they land, a reflective and intentional process is one we’re proud of irregardless of outcome.
Here’s where the poker metaphor breaks down in our favor. At a poker table only one player rakes the pot. Every other hand loses. Palladis students never lose. A student who made excellent choices along the way already has a winning hand before decision day arrives. The hand isn’t the acceptance letter. It’s the essay that finally sounds like them. It’s the extracurricular they picked for the right reasons that opened up a new world of interests. It’s the relationship built with a counselor, teacher, or coach that lasts long after the reference letter transaction. These are the cards that build a winning hand and a decision-making legend.
A poker player who thinks in bets never judges their skill by one hand or even one night at the table. They judge it by thousands of hands played over years because that’s the only sample size that separates skill from luck. Admissions works the same way. This application, essay, Early Decision choice, and offer letter are not about making perfect decisions. They are practice for the thousands of decisions still ahead.
Come and practice excellence with us.
– Sarah, 5 July 2026